Assessing Rational Expectations Sunspot Multiplicity and Economic Fluctuations
- List Price: $45.00
- Binding: Hardcover
- Publisher: Mit Pr
- Publish date: 04/01/2001
The book is divided into four parts. The first part uses the framework of simple models to characterize the stochastic processes that trigger self-fulfilling prophecies and examines the connections between periodic equilibria (cycles) and stochastic equilibria (sunspots). (A sunspot is a random shock uncorrelated with underlying economic fundamentals.) The second part views sunspot equilibria as overreactions triggered by small variations of intrinsic variables -- rather than as fluctuations with no trigger -- and looks at the consequences for a monetary theory a la Lucas. The third part develops the basic theory to encompass more complex, multidimensional systems. It focuses in particular on the special class of equilibria generating small fluctuations around a steady state. Broadening the scope, the fourth part looks at the stability of cycles, sunspots in systems with memory, and current research on rational expectations.
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