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Population Forecasting 1895-1945, the Transition to Modernity the Transition to Modernity

by Henk A. De Gans

  • ISBN: 9780792355373
  • ISBN10: 0792355377

Population Forecasting 1895-1945, the Transition to Modernity the Transition to Modernity

by Henk A. De Gans

  • Binding: Hardcover
  • Publisher: Kluwer Academic Pub
  • Publish date: 12/01/1998
  • ISBN: 9780792355373
  • ISBN10: 0792355377
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Description: This book is about the transition to modernity of population forecasting. Because population debates tended to be based on emotion rather than 'objective' arguments, some economists and statisticians felt the need for a better understanding of population dynamics and its effect on the development of future population. Their pursuit of objectivity in population debates resulted in the development of a forecasting methodology based on the findings of life table theory and analytical demography.

This book recounts the history of the origin and establishment of modern population forecasting methodology and the resistance the new methodology met with. It demonstrates -- using George Herbert Mead's philosophy of time -- that the emergence of modern population forecasting resulted in a drastic change of the societal position of the forecaster, the consequences of which still resound today. The book uncovers the first contributions to the description and theory of the demographic transition in the publications of the early innovators of population forecasting. It lays bare the pioneering position of inter-war population forecasting in The Netherlands and clarifies why the innovative endeavours of Dutch population forecasters of that period nevertheless remained hidden in international histories.

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