Description: 1. Introduction.- 2. Role Playing.- Role Playing: A Method to Forecast Decisions.- 3. Intentions.- Methods for Forecasting from Intentions Data.- 4. Expert Opinions.- Improving Judgment in Forecasting.- Improving Reliability of Judgmental Forecasts.- Decomposition for Judgmental Forecasting and Estimation.- Expert Opinions in Forecasting: The Role of the Delphi Technique.- 5. Conjoint Analysis.- Forecasting with Conjoint Analysis.- 6. Judgmental Bootstrapping.- Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts' Rules for Forecasting.- 7. Analogies.- Forecasting Analogous Time Series.- 8. Extrapolation.- Extrapolation of Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data.- Neural Networks For Time-Series Forecasting.- 9. Rule-Based Forecasting.- Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation.- 10. Expert Systems.- Expert Systems for Forecasting.- 11. Econometric Methods.- Econometric Forecasting.- 12. Selecting Methods.- Selecting Forecasting Methods.- 13. Integrating, Adjusting, and Combining.- Judgmental Time-Series Forecasting Using Domain Knowledge.- Judgmental Adjustment of Statistical Forecasts.- Combining Forecasts.- 14. Evaluating Methods.- Evaluating Forecasting Methods.- 15. Assessing Uncertainly.- Prediction Intervals for Time-Series Forecasting.- Overconfidence in Judgmental Forecasting.- 16. Gaining Acceptance.- Scenarios and Acceptance of Forecasts.- 17. Monitoring Forecasts.- Learning from Experience: Coping with Hindsight Bias and Ambiguity.- 18. Applications of Principles.- Population Forecasting.- Forecasting the Diffusion of Innovations: Implications for Time-Series Extrapolation.- Econometric Models for Forecasting Market Share.- Forecasting Trial Sales of New Consumer Packaged Goods.- 19. Diffusion of Principles.- Diffusion of Forecasting Principles through Books.- Diffusion of Forecasting Principles through Software.- 20. Summary.- Standards and Practices for Forecasting.- Forecasting Standards Checklist.- External Reviewers.- About the Authors.- The Forecasting Dictionary.- Author Index.

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